Multi-Scenario Dynamic Simulation of Urban Agglomeration Development on the Northern Slope of the Tianshan Mountains in Xinjiang, China, with the Goal of High-Quality Urban Construction

The construction of high-quality urban agglomeration has become a guiding strategy for future development. Based on the current development status northern slope Tianshan Mountains, concepts environmental protection, harmonious coexistence, and sustainable were combined in present study. Land cover data 2010 2020 as well various driving factors limiting selected to simulate forecast land change under constraints. At same time, natural scenario, farmland protection ecological scenario Mountains 2030, use simulation Markov (FLUS-Markov) model growth boundary (UGB) combined. following conclusions may be drawn from results. (1) Using 2020, kappa value was 0.724, overall accuracy 82.9%, FOM 0.245, exhibiting high accuracy. (2) Under three scenarios, degree expansion varied significantly but proportion area remained stable at 3%. most obvious, followed by while least obvious. (3) mainly dominated encroachment grassland, edge mode characterized concentrated contiguous land. (4) kernel density results show that exhibited year-by-year expansion, best suitable surrounding farmland. (5) delineation UGB reasonable effective, it can provide relevant reference government’s layout planning.